After the funeral dirges for the New Yankees 2022 season are played, the thoughts of fans and watchers of the team will turn to the story of another playoff defeat for the Houston Astros and the raid next winter, Aaron Judge’s looming free agent roster.
Coming out of the 2022 campaign, where he broke an American League record of 62 home runs, Judge will be the most sought-after class of 2022-23 free agent. Given his skills, dominance of the walking year, and the importance of the team he may have played in his last game, Judge will undoubtedly be the most talked-about free agent of the coming season. That’s exactly what we’re here to do – to talk about Aaron Judge and his upcoming freelance.
Given that the off-season hasn’t started yet, there’s a lot of sequel to the sequel, but there are also some key facts that will be relevant to Judge’s journey to market regardless of where and how many contracts he’s signed. Let’s begin to set the stage for all this by taking a quick look at each of the six factors that will shape the future of the Judge.
The legendary year of the judge’s march
As noted, this season Judge has made 62 home runs, but that’s not the extent of his 2022 excellence. He reduced it by 0.311/0.425/0.686 in 157 regular season games, resulting in a ridiculously high OPS+ of 211. The judge rushed to the Triple Crown and took the AL for walks. As throughout his entire career, he also boasted of his best-of-scale batting ball measurements, which predicted the elite production to keep moving forward.
Also, the Judge is apparently not a one-dimensional sloth, despite his burly physical dimensions. He stole 16 bases this season and took the extra base 50 percent of the time, versus the league average of 43 percent. The judge also spent most of his defensive kicks in midfield and reminded us in the ALCS that he can change traps like this:
This athleticism bodes well for Judge when it comes to his future aging curve, and shows he’ll keep his skills for the long haul. That’s a key point for a free agent entering his 31st season in 2023.
Yankees’ attempts to sign him
The Yankees team has repeatedly expressed a desire to keep Judge on the court by signing him for a long-term extension, and there were repeated negotiations to that end through the 2022 regular season. Breaking with established norms, Yankees GM Brian Cashman said the Yankees offered Judge a seven-year, $213.5 million contract extension in late spring training, which Judge refused. This wasn’t a competitive offer even before Judge’s legendary 2022 season, and Cashman’s shouting at the media about it suggests he didn’t realize it, or at least refuses to admit it wasn’t a competitive offer. Like many other pending free agents, Judge was unwilling to negotiate during the season, and as far as we know, this was the last offer the Yankees made. If they had raised their bid, they would probably have said it out loud.
Qualified Offer
Here’s a little less thought on this whole relationship, but something you’ll hear soon. The Qualifying Offer (QO) is, in essence, a one-year offer that teams can offer to their pending free agents in most cases (players who have already taken QO or traded during walking years are not eligible for QO). The QO’s value is the average of the 125 best salaries in MLB and will be worth $19.65 million for the 2023 season. If a player accepts the QO offered, he has a contract for the next season at that year’s QO dollar figure and therefore his free agency is tabled for one year. A player who accepts the QO is also free to work with the team on a multi-year extension.
A team that extends a QO to a pending free agent has the right to choose compensation if that player declines the QO and signs a major league free agent contract with another team. Depending on multiple factors – the value of the contract he signed and the income-sharing and luxury tax status of the player’s former team – this compensatory draft pick will be dropped at the end of the first round or the end of the competitive balance round. B. On the other hand, a team that signs a free agent who refuses a QO must lose at least one draft pick and in some cases lose money from the international bonus pool used to sign international amateur free agents.
In the case of the Judge, the Yankees will offer him a QO without question, and the Judge will almost certainly turn it down. Non-superstar free agents may find that their free agent markets are somewhat distorted by the loads of a QO and the loss of draft picks, but Judge-level free agents are basically immune to such effects.
When the judge is free agent
Eligible players become free agents on November 6. However, this is followed by a five-day Silent Period, during which free agents can only negotiate with the team they’re playing for in 2022. Those signed during the Quiet Period are eligible to negotiate with any team. November 10 is also the deadline for teams to submit Qualified Bids. After a player receives a QO, he has 10 days to decide whether to accept or not, but can negotiate with other teams during that time, provided the Quiet Period has ended. In Judge’s case, he will likely reject QO immediately and will be part of the free agents challenge eligible to do business with any team starting Nov 10.
Judge’s next contract
According to Jon Heyman, Judge countered the Yankees’ bid of $36 million in a nine- or 10-year bid, and again, it was before he went out and wrote a 10.2 WAR that would likely lead him to win the AL MVP award. 2022. Getting a deal up to $360 million doesn’t necessarily mean you’re going to get it, but it’s kind of indicative.
As for the contract that Hakim eventually signed as a free agent, whether with the Yankees or another suitor, our very own Mike Axisa took a (very) deep dive into the subject in late September, when the historic breadth of Hakim’s 2022 season was evident. . He reached a possible settlement of $342 million over nine years.
To expand this particular mind into the hive region, we added that number to the best estimates made by the remaining five members of the CBS Sports MLB writing and editorial staff, and we came up with a crowdsourced average of $358 million over nine years. . In other words, our estimation is that Judge will sign a contract to turn 38 and pay him in excess of $350 million. Market conditions are volatile, of course, but that’s probably close to the price tag this winter.
Possible Judge landing points
A return to the Yankees remains the most likely outcome. They weren’t spending in line with their near-limitless recent income, but losing The Judge would have been a blow to an organization that seemed to be running out of energy anyway. If the judge decides to sign elsewhere, high-income clubs like the New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants will enter the race. Among potential dark horses, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers, and – why not – Houston Astros. This is of course not an exhaustive list, and every marquee free agency seems to offer one or more surprise bidders. This will likely be the case for the Judge when the frenzy begins very soon.