As the NFL trade deadline approaches, focus is placed on the Broncos, Bears, Raiders, and a few other potential dealers.

The New York Giants beat the Washington Commanders 20-12 in their Week 15 rematch.

The game was more stressful than anyone would have preferred, but the Giants ended up winning. Although the Giants gained the lead early in the second quarter – and they weren’t going to relinquish it – this game was much closer than the score might suggest.

The victory featured an extraordinary performance by rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux and a kind of escape from the defense as a whole.

But aspects of the game are often lost on – or at least forgotten about – in the moment. What light can statistics and analysis shed on the Giants’ victory?

game moves

This game was won by the Giants’ defense, hands down. The defense came out with the biggest plays, both from a winning probability and an EPA perspective, and it wasn’t very close.

The biggest play of the game on the winning probability chart was the fourth quarter sack by Dexter Lawrence and Azeez Ojulari. While Taylor Heinicke was initially downed by contact, that ruling was overturned and resulted in a sack-fumble that was recovered by the Giants. That play was worth a whopping 31% change in winning probability, dropping Washington’s winning odds from 53% to just 22%. At the time, the Giants led 17-12 but were reeling as Washington had just run down the field. A field goal would have put Washington in a position to potentially win with a field goal. Instead, he set up a great drive that resulted in a field goal to put the game out of reach.

The biggest play in terms of expected points added was, unsurprisingly, Kayvon Thibodeaux’s sack-fumble recovery touchdown. The Giants were down 3-0 in the first quarter and struggled hard on offense. The first shot was a very fast 3-and-out that took about 40 seconds off the game clock and the second possession was a little better, but not much. Washington, meanwhile, was moving the ball around at will in the 20 and the game could have turned ugly quickly if they got traction in the red zone on their third possession. Instead, Thibodeaux made the game of his young career and gave the Giants a 7–3 lead. That play was worth an impressive 6.5 EPA to the Giants and was easily the biggest play of the game.

offense enough

Again, the Giants’ offense was probably best described as doing “enough”. We’ve seen the Giants struggle a lot against teams that can score points, but luckily Washington is not one of those teams.

Because of this, the Giants were able to win without having to ask their offense – and their offense in particular – very much.

Daniel Jones had just 160 passing yards and an average of 5.0 yards per attempt. According to NFL NextGenStats, his passing average was 5.2 yards short of the first down marker and was supposed to be 3.7 passing yards. His average target depth has been in the 2nd percentile since 2010 and his average completion has traveled just 3.4 yards in the air.

RBSDM.com/Boxscore

This was probably due to the scheme of the Giatns and Washington.

First, the Giants didn’t want Washington’s pass to wreck their day (again). Last time around, Washington’s defense hit Jones four times and forced a fumble that led to a 10-0 opening hole.

This time, the Giants wanted to get the ball out quickly with catch-and-play single-read passes. Where the Giants’ passing game relied more on RPOs and game-action bootlegs earlier in the season, this was much more of a traditional quick pass offense that involved far fewer mesh points. The Giants (correctly) determined that the NFL was able to control the use of action plays and RPO. The use of fast play took Washington by surprise and allowed Jones to get clear of the ball before the Commanders’ fast pass could reach him.

The Giants’ passing game largely served as an extension of the running game – which struggled until the final drive after Heinicke’s second sack-fumble.

The Giants’ passes were pretty useless from an EPA perspective. They averaged just 0.04 expected points added per pass attempt, and the Giants scored just 13 offensive points. However, they helped the Giants win the battle time for possession and reverse the field position.

The Giants’ more traditional passing offense allowed them to take advantage of Jack Del Rio’s preference for Cover 2 and Cover 4 defenses. These coverage schemes would have suited slightly slower developmental pass plays that involved mesh points. However, they allowed a quick breakup for the Giants’ receivers and easy, high-percentage completions for Jones. According to NFL NextGenStats, only four of Jones’ 32 passing attempts were thrown to receivers who were “covered”.

As in recent weeks, the Giants’ receivers were solid if unspectacular.

They executed their assignments well, generally did a good job opening up and making plays when the offense needed it most.

NFL NextGenStats

about the defense

Despite the win, the Giants turned in one of their most anemic offensive performances of the season against Washington. Fortunately, their defense more than picked up the slack and it didn’t matter.

Where the Giants had only one offensive play to rank in the top 10 in the EPA and added win probability (respectively), their defense had four top plays in added expected points and five top plays in the top 10 in added winning probability.

But before we get to what the defense did well, we need to talk about the Giants’ defense.

Overall, the Giants gave up 159 yards on 29 carries (6.1 yards per carry) in the round. That’s bad enough, but Brian Robinson got 89 yards on just 12 carries, or 7.4 per carry. The Giants may have entered the game with a plan to slow down Robinson, but the only time the Giants were able to consistently defend the run was when the Commanders opted to use Curtis Sameuel as a running back instead of Robinson or Antonio Gibson.

Robinson was able to find at least some success no matter where he ran.

Things are unlikely to change dramatically with just three games left in the regular season.

Fortunately, the Giants were able to force Washington through situations and did a great job behind Taylor Heinicke.

According to NFL NextGenStats, the Giants pressured Heinicke nearly 40% of his dropbacks despite “only” blitzing 26.5% of the time. There aren’t many teams that can claim a 26 percent blitz rate as low, but the Giants top the list. They were able to win without relying on the blitz because their Front 4, led by Thibodeaux and Ojulari, did an excellent job of consistently pressuring Heinicke.

As much as Washington bothered Daniel Jones in their first meeting, Giants defenders outplayed Washington’s forwards in the passing game and practically lived in the opposing field.

It also served to take a lot of pressure off the Giants’ secondary and thwart the Commanders’ long-range passing attack. This, in turn, also made the Giants’ blitzes much more effective. With the Front Four consistently winning their one-on-ones, the blitzers were able to generate a ton of pressure.