The Cardinals are one of many teams that have been linked to the left-handed free agent Carlos Rodón🇧🇷 However, The Athletic’s Katie Woo reports that the Cardinals are “unlikely to shell out the years and money” that Rodón is looking for.
The fact that the cards were pulled from Rodón’s market isn’t exactly shocking. The latest asking price report indicates he’s looking to secure over $200 million on a seven-year or longer deal. That’s extremely thin air for a pitcher, with only a handful reaching that length or that kind of guarantee or both.
The Cardinals have never given that kind of money to any player, pitcher or otherwise. They never got close, actually. The biggest contract in franchise history is the five-year, $130 million extension they gave to Paul Goldschmidt in March 2019. The biggest guarantee they’ve given a free agent is the $120MM they gave to Matt Holliday in 2010. The biggest contract they ever gave a pitcher was the $97.5 million extension awarded to Adam Wainwright in March 2013, while the biggest guarantee they gave a free agent pitcher was $80MM for Mike Leake going into 2016.
A deal in the $200 million range for Rodón would top any of those deals, meaning the Cardinals need to set a new aggressive standard to pull it off, even in a vacuum. Outside of a vacuum, there are other factors that also make it unlikely. The highest opening day payroll in club history is $164 million, as per the Cot’s baseball contracts. They are already effectively tied for that record, according to Roster Resource’s calculations. The club’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated the club will increase payroll this season, but meeting Rodón’s asking price would mean going about $30 million beyond previous levels in 2023, as well as adding commitments. significant in the long term. In between Nolan Arenado and Willson Contrerasthe Cards already have over $40MM on the books for 2026 and over $30MM for 2027. Giving Rodón what he’s looking for would almost double those numbers and have the club commit a large portion of its payroll to three players who would each be in their 30s by then.
The Cardinals also don’t strictly need a starter right now, as they have multiple rotation options. Its current crop of upstarts includes Wainwright, Jack Flaherty🇧🇷 Miles Mikolas🇧🇷 Steven Matz🇧🇷 Jordan Montgomery and dakota hudson🇧🇷 There are some injury concerns, but it’s still a solid group overall, with deep options like Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson available if needed. Adding Rodón would certainly be an upgrade, especially after 2023 when Wainwright retires and Flaherty, Mikolas and Montgomery will all be free agents. However, that group is also decent enough for the club to play in the Central National League this year.
It’s always possible that Rodón’s asking price will drop if he can’t find a deal he likes. As mentioned, it’s very rare for pitchers to break $200MM. Only six pitchers have ever crossed that line: Gerrit Cole🇧🇷 Stephen Strasburg🇧🇷 David Price🇧🇷 Clayton Kershaw🇧🇷 Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke🇧🇷 Rodón has been pretty good the past two seasons, but he doesn’t have the track record to match those guys in their respective primes. Injuries have limited him to 847 1/3 innings so far in his career and he just broke 170 in a single season for the first time in 2022. Each of these other guys has had multiple 200+ inning seasons and well over 1,000 innings in total . Starting pitcher usage has declined in recent years, but it’s still a significant difference.
There are still many interested teams like Yankees, Twins, Giants and others. However, no one has reached their asking price yet. If it falls, perhaps the Cardinals will reconsider their pursuit, but it doesn’t seem like the most likely course of events at this time.
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